Regional inequalities in cervical cancer mortality in Brazil: trends and projections through to 2030

• Published in: Ciência & saude coletiva 2016-01, Vol.21 (1), p.253-262
• Main Authors: Barbosa, Isabelle Ribeiro, Souza, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de, Bernal, María Milagros, Costa, Iris do Céu Clara
• Format: Article
• Language: Portuguese
• Subjects: Adult; Aged; Brazil - epidemiology; Cervical cancer; Epidemiology; Female; Forecasting; Health disparities; Health Status Disparities; Humans; Information Systems; Middle Aged; Mortality; Regions; Socioeconomic Factors; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms - mortality; Young Adult
• ISSN: 1413-8123; 1678-4561
• DOI: 10.1590/1413-81232015211.03662015

The scope of this article is to analyze the temporal trends of cervical cancer mortality in Brazil and calculate the projection of mortality through to the year 2030. Deaths that occurred within the 1996-2010 period were analyzed (Mortality Information System). Mortality trend analysis utilized the Joinpoint regression, while Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of projections. For Brazil, decreasing trends were identified (APC = 1.7% CI95%-2.2; -1.1 p < 0.05). The Midwest region presented a significant reduction trend (APC = -1.3% per year), along with the Southeast (APC = -3.3%) and South (APC = -3.9%) regions. The North and Northeast regions presented stable trends. The states of Acre (APC = -6.5%) and Rio Grande do Sul (APC = -4.1%) presented the most pronounced reduction trends. Analysis of the mortality projections revealed a reduction in mortality rates, starting from the first projected period, with a considerable reduction for the South region. Mortality rates through to the year 2030 are explained, principally, by reductions in the risk of the disease. Cervical cancer mortality presents reducing trends, however these are unequally distributed throughout the country, where the North and Northeast regions present the highest mortality rates.