Projected changes in extreme temperature events based on the NARCCAP model suite

Once‐per‐year (annual) maximum temperature extremes in North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) models are projected to increase more (less) than mean daily maximum summer temperatures over much of the eastern (western) United States. In contrast, the models almost everywh...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2015-09, Vol.42 (18), p.7722-7731
Main Authors: Horton, Radley M., Coffel, Ethan D., Winter, Jonathan M., Bader, Daniel A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anomalies
Assessments
Boundary conditions
Climate
Climate change
climate change and variability
climate dynamics
Climate models
Dynamic height
Environmental assessment
Equivalence
Geopotential
Geopotential height
Height anomalies
Historic
impacts of global change
Minimum temperatures
Moisture
RCM
Regional analysis
Regional climates
regional modeling
Seasons
Snow
Snow-water equivalent
Soil
Soil moisture
Summer
Summer temperatures
Temperature
Temperature distribution
Temperature effects
Temperature extremes
Winter
Winter temperatures
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Summary:Once‐per‐year (annual) maximum temperature extremes in North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) models are projected to increase more (less) than mean daily maximum summer temperatures over much of the eastern (western) United States. In contrast, the models almost everywhere project greater warming of once‐per‐year minimum temperatures as compared to mean daily minimum winter temperatures. Under projected changes associated with extremes of the temperature distribution, Baltimore's maximum temperature that was met or exceeded once per year historically is projected to occur 17 times per season by midcentury, a 28% increase relative to projections based on summer mean daily maximum temperature change. Under the same approach, historical once‐per‐year cold events in Baltimore are projected to occur once per decade. The models are generally able to capture observed geopotential height anomalies associated with temperature extremes in two subregions. Projected changes in extreme temperature events cannot be explained by geopotential height anomalies or lower boundary conditions as reflected by soil moisture anomalies or snow water equivalent. Key Points Extremes warm ∼2°C more than mean Order of magnitude recurrence changes RCMs capture dynamics
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2015GL064914