Precipitation and floodiness

• Published in: Geophysical research letters 2015-12, Vol.42 (23), p.10,316-10,323
• Main Authors: Stephens, E., Day, J. J., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anomalies; Atmospheric precipitations; Buildings; climate variability; Climatology; Correlation; Flood control; Flood forecasting; Flood hazards; Flood insurance; floodiness; Floods; Forecasting; Freshwater; Hazard assessment; Hydrologic models; Hydrology; Hydrometeorology; Mathematical models; Methods; Monthly precipitation; Nonlinear systems; Nonlinearity; Precipitation; Precipitation anomalies; River discharge; River flow; Scale (ratio); Water discharge; Weather forecasting
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066779

There are a number of factors that lead to nonlinearity between precipitation anomalies and flood hazard; this nonlinearity is a pertinent issue for applications that use a precipitation forecast as a proxy for imminent flood hazard. We assessed the degree of this nonlinearity for the first time using a recently developed global‐scale hydrological model driven by the ERA‐Interim/Land precipitation reanalysis (1980–2010). We introduced new indices to assess large‐scale flood hazard, or floodiness, and quantified the link between monthly precipitation, river discharge, and floodiness anomalies at the global and regional scales. The results show that monthly floodiness is not well correlated with precipitation, therefore demonstrating the value of hydrometeorological systems for providing floodiness forecasts for decision‐makers. A method is described for forecasting floodiness using the Global Flood Awareness System, building a climatology of regional floodiness from which to forecast floodiness anomalies out to 2 weeks. Key Points Indices of floodiness are introduced to assess large‐scale flood hazard Precipitation anomalies do not correlate well with those for floodiness A skilful seasonal precipitation forecast may not reflect flood hazard