Quantitative estimate of the Milankovitch-forced contribution to observed Quaternary climate change

A number of records commonly described as showing control of climate change by Milankovitch insolation forcing are re-examined. The fraction of the record variance attributable to orbital changes never exceeds 20%. In no case, including a tuned core, do these forcing bands explain the overall behavi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Quaternary science reviews 2004-05, Vol.23 (9), p.1001-1012
Main Author: Wunsch, Carl
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:A number of records commonly described as showing control of climate change by Milankovitch insolation forcing are re-examined. The fraction of the record variance attributable to orbital changes never exceeds 20%. In no case, including a tuned core, do these forcing bands explain the overall behavior of the records. At zero order, all records are consistent with stochastic models of varying complexity with a small superimposed Milankovitch response, mainly in the obliquity band. Evidence cited to support the hypothesis that the 100 Ka glacial/interglacial cycles are controlled by the quasi-periodic insolation forcing is likely indistinguishable from chance, given the small sample size and near-integer ratios of 100 Ka to the precessional periods. At the least, the stochastic background “noise” is likely to be of importance.
ISSN:0277-3791
1873-457X
DOI:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.02.014