Influence of fossil-fuel power plant emissions on the surface fine particulate matter in the Seoul Capital Area, South Korea

• Published in: Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995) 2016-09, Vol.66 (9), p.863-873
• Main Authors: Kim, Byeong-Uk, Kim, Okgil, Kim, Hyun Cheol, Kim, Soontae
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air Pollutants - adverse effects; Air Pollutants - analysis; Air Pollution - adverse effects; Air Pollution - analysis; Air Pollution - statistics & numerical data; Air quality; Aluminum base alloys; Electric power generation; Electric power plants; Electricity; Electricity generation; Emissions; Environmental Monitoring - methods; Estimates; Forecasting; Fossil Fuels; Humans; Mathematical models; Models, Theoretical; Mortality, Premature; Outdoor air quality; Particulate Matter - adverse effects; Particulate Matter - analysis; Power Plants; Reduction; Seoul - epidemiology
• ISSN: 1096-2247; 2162-2906
• DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2016.1175392

The South Korean government plans to reduce region-wide annual PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) concentrations in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA) from 2010 levels of 27 µg/m 3 to 20 µg/m 3 by 2024. At the same time, it is inevitable that emissions from fossil-fuel power plants will continue to increase if electricity generation expands and the generation portfolio remains the same in the future. To estimate incremental PM 2.5 contributions due to projected electricity generation growth in South Korea, we utilized an ensemble forecasting member of the Integrated Multidimensional Air Quality System for Korea based on the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model. We performed sensitivity runs with across-the-board emission reductions for all fossil-fuel power plants in South Korea to estimate the contribution of PM 2.5 from domestic fossil-fuel power plants. We estimated that fossil-fuel power plants are responsible for 2.4% of the annual PM 2.5 national ambient air quality standard in the SCA as of 2010. Based on the electricity generation and the annual contribution of fossil-fuel power plants in 2010, we estimated that annual PM 2.5 concentrations may increase by 0.2 µg/m 3 per 100 TWhr due to additional electricity generation. With currently available information on future electricity demands, we estimated that the total future contribution of fossil-fuel power plants would be 0.87 µg/m 3 , which is 12.4% of the target reduction amount of the annual PM 2.5 concentration by 2024. We also approximated that the number of premature deaths caused by existing fossil-fuel power plants would be 736 in 2024. Since the proximity of power plants to the SCA and the types of fuel used significantly impact this estimation, further studies are warranted on the impact of physical parameters of plants, such as location and stack height, on PM 2.5 concentrations in the SCA due to each precursor. Implications: Improving air quality by reducing fine particle pollution is challenging when fossil-fuel-based electricity production is increasing. We show that an air quality forecasting system based on a photochemical model can be utilized to efficiently estimate PM 2.5 contributions from and health impacts of domestic power plants. We derived PM 2.5 concentrations per unit amount of electricity production from existing fossil-fuel power plants in South Korea. We assessed the health impacts of existing fossil-fuel power plants and the PM 2.5 concentrat