The post-crisis slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model

The global financial crisis (2008–09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences—in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more protracted. W...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:European economic review 2016-09, Vol.88, p.21-41
Main Authors: Kollmann, Robert, Pataracchia, Beatrice, Raciborski, Rafal, Ratto, Marco, Roeger, Werner, Vogel, Lukas
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Demand and supply shocks and financial shocks
Economic crisis
Equilibrium
Estimated DSGE model
Euro Area
Europe
Eurozone
International comparisons
International finance
Keynesian theory
Post-crisis slump
Recessions
Studies
Supply & demand
United States
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Summary:The global financial crisis (2008–09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences—in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more protracted. We estimate a three-region (EA, US and Rest of World) New Keynesian DSGE model (using quarterly data for 1999–2014) to quantify the drivers of the divergent EA and US adjustment paths. Our results suggest that financial shocks were key drivers of the 2008–09 Great Recession, for both the EA and the US. The post-2009 slump in the EA mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment, linked to the continuing poor health of the EA financial system. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US. The financial shocks identified by the model are consistent with observed performance indicators of the EA and US banking systems.
ISSN:0014-2921
1873-572X
DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.03.003