High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, of precipitation extremes and of the duration of the winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas in Central Europe. The projected c...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Theoretical and applied climatology 2017-02, Vol.127 (3-4), p.667-683
Main Authors: Fallmann, Joachim, Wagner, Sven, Emeis, Stefan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Boundary conditions
Climate change
Climate models
Climate science
Climatic conditions
Climatology
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Energy consumption
Environmental impact
Freezing
Global temperature changes
Heat waves
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Metropolitan areas
Numerical weather prediction
Original Paper
Precipitation (Meteorology)
Simulation
Studies
Temperature
Urban areas
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
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Summary:Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, of precipitation extremes and of the duration of the winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas in Central Europe. The projected climate change impact is assessed for 11 urban areas based on climate indices for a future period (2021–2050) compared to a reference period (1971–2000) using the IPCC AR4 A1B Scenario as boundary conditions. These climate indices are calculated from daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures as well as precipitation amounts. By this, the vulnerability of these areas to future climate conditions is to be investigated. The number of heat waves, as well as the number of single hot days, tropical nights and heavy precipitation events is projected to increase in the near future. In addition, the number of frost days is significantly decreased. Probability density functions of monthly mean summer time temperatures show an increase of the 95th percentile of about 1–3 °C for the future compared with the reference period. The projected increase of cooling and decrease of heating degree days indicate the possible impact on urban energy consumption under future climate conditions.
ISSN:0177-798X
1434-4483
DOI:10.1007/s00704-015-1658-9