Influences of air temperature change on leisure industries - case study on ski activities

• Published in: Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2002, Vol.7 (2), p.173-189
• Main Authors: Fukushima, T, Kureha, M, Ozaki, N, Fujimori, Y, Harasawa, H
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air temperature; Climate change; Climate prediction; High altitude; Hydrologic data; Ski resorts; Skiing; Snow; Snow depth; Water depth
• ISSN: 1381-2386; 1573-1596
• DOI: 10.1023/A:1022803405470

To evaluate the influences of air temperature change on ski activities, the changes in the numbers of skiers visiting seven ski areas in Japan were predicted in conjunction with climate change. First, having built a model for predicting snow depth based on the budgets of water and heat using the air temperature and precipitation data collected nationwide, we demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed snow depths (p < 0.01 and the ratios for more than 81% cases ranged from 0.5 to 2). Second, the relationship between the number of skiers and the depth of snow at one of the seven ski areas was analyzed statistically on a daily basis. In addition, we did the same on a monthly basis at six other ski areas and compared the observed and predicted numbers of skiers (p < 0.01 and the ratios for more than 94% cases ranged from 0.5 to 2). Using this model and the relationship between daily snow depth and number of skiers, the changes in skier numbers in the seven ski areas were predicted for several scenarios with respect to air temperature changes; e.g. a more than 30% drop in visiting skiers was forecast in almost all ski areas in Japan except northern region (Hokkaido) and/or high altitude regions (center of the Main Island) under the condition of a 3 degree C increase in air temperature. The vulnerability of the ski industry and its adaptation to climate change are discussed.