WALKING DOWN WALL STREET WITH A TABLET: A SURVEY OF STOCK MARKET PREDICTIONS USING THE WEB

‘A blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts at The Wall Street Journal could select a portfolio that would do as well as the (stock market) experts’ [Malkiel (2003) The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(1): 59–82)]. However, what if this chimpanzee could b...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of economic surveys 2016-04, Vol.30 (2), p.356-369
Main Authors: Nardo, Michela, Petracco-Giudici, Marco, Naltsidis, Minás
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Big data
Economic theory
Efficient markets
Financial predictions
Machine learning
Monkeys & apes
News media
Online information services
Securities analysis
Securities markets
Sentiment analysis
Studies
Text mining
Trading strategies
Web mining
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Summary:‘A blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts at The Wall Street Journal could select a portfolio that would do as well as the (stock market) experts’ [Malkiel (2003) The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives 17(1): 59–82)]. However, what if this chimpanzee could browse the Internet before throwing any darts? In this paper, we ask whether online news has any influence on the financial market, and we also investigate how much influence it has. We explore the burgeoning literature on the predictability of financial movements using online information and report its mixed findings. In addition, we collate the efforts of various disciplines, including economics, text mining, sentiment analysis and machine learning, and we offer suggestions for future research.
ISSN:0950-0804
1467-6419
DOI:10.1111/joes.12102