Predicting the amplitude and hemispheric asymmetry of solar cycle 25 with surface flux transport

Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport code, with flows well constrained by observations, to simulate the evolution of the...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of geophysical research. Space physics 2016-11, Vol.121 (11), p.10,744-10,753
Main Authors: Hathaway, David H., Upton, Lisa A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asymmetry
Convective motion
Evolution
Flow profiles
Flux
Magnetic fields
Meridional flow
Randomness
Simulation
Solar activity
Solar cycle
Solar cycles
Solar magnetic field
Solar physics
Southern Hemisphere
Strength
Sun
Sunspot cycle
Sunspots
Transport
Uncertainty
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport code, with flows well constrained by observations, to simulate the evolution of the Sun's polar magnetic fields from early 2016 to the end of 2019—near the expected time of cycle 24/25 minimum. We run a series of simulations in which the uncertain conditions (convective motion details, active region tilt, and meridional flow profile) are varied within expected ranges. We find that the average strength of the polar fields near the end of cycle 24 will be similar to that measured near the end of cycle 23, indicating that cycle 25 will be similar in strength to the current cycle. In all cases the polar fields are asymmetric with fields in the south stronger than those in the north. This asymmetry would be more pronounced if not for the predicted weakening of the southern polar fields in late 2016 and through 2017. After just 4 years of simulation the variability across our ensemble indicates an accumulated uncertainty of about 15%. This accumulated uncertainty arises from stochastic variations in the convective motion details, the active region tilt, and changes in the meridional flow profile. These variations limit the ultimate predictability of the solar cycle. Key Points Cycle 25 will be similar in size to cycle 24 Cycle 25 will have a more active Southern Hemisphere Stochastic variations in the convective flows and active region characteristics limit predictability
ISSN:2169-9380
2169-9402
DOI:10.1002/2016JA023190