On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources

We assessed whether the impacts of various increases in global mean temperature from preindustrial levels (∆GMT) on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources could be approximated by linear scaling of the impacts of ∆GMT = 2 °C at global and large regional scales. Impacts on net primary production,...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2017-04, Vol.141 (4), p.775-782
Main Authors: Tanaka, Akemi, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Shiogama, Hideo, Hanasaki, Naota, Masaki, Yoshimitsu, Ito, Akihiko, Noda, Hibiki, Hijioka, Yasuaki, Emori, Seita
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric Sciences
Biomass
Biomass burning
Burning
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide emissions
Case studies
Climate
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Computer simulation
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Ecosystems
Erosion
Global temperatures
Impact assessment
Letter
Mean temperatures
Primary production
Regions
Resources
Runoff
Scaling
Soil
Soil erosion
Statistical analysis
Streamlines
Surface runoff
Temperature
Temperature rise
Terrestrial ecosystems
Water resources
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We assessed whether the impacts of various increases in global mean temperature from preindustrial levels (∆GMT) on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources could be approximated by linear scaling of the impacts of ∆GMT = 2 °C at global and large regional scales. Impacts on net primary production, CO 2 emissions from biomass burning, soil erosion, and surface runoff calculated by impact model simulations driven by multiple climate scenarios were assessed for a ∆GMT range of 1.5–4 °C. The results showed that the linear scaling was tolerable for net primary production, biomass burning, and surface runoff for a global average. However, for regional averages, the linear scaling was unacceptable for net primary production and biomass burning as well as for soil erosion at around 3 °C in numerous regions around the world. The linear scaling was judged to be tolerable for surface runoff in most regions where the impacts of 2 °C were statistically significant, but there were large uncertainties in future changes in surface runoff in many regions. Exploring the applicability of linear scaling could help simplify and streamline climate-change impact assessments at various ∆GMTs. Our approach leaves room for refinement, and further investigation will be worthwhile.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-017-1911-6