Predicting manure volatile solid output of lactating dairy cows

• Published in: Journal of dairy science 2018-01, Vol.101 (1), p.820-829
• Main Authors: Appuhamy, J.A.D.R.N., Moraes, L.E., Wagner-Riddle, C., Casper, D.P., Kebreab, E.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: dairy cow; manure; prediction model; volatile solid
• ISSN: 0022-0302; 1525-3198
• DOI: 10.3168/jds.2017-12813

Organic matter (OM) in livestock manure consisting of biodegradable and nonbiodegradable fractions is known as volatile solids (VS). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 guidelines, methane produced by stored manure is determined based on VS. However, only biodegradable OM generates methane production. Therefore, estimates of biodegradable VS (dVS; dVS = VS − lignin) would yield better estimates of methane emissions from manure. The objective of the study was to develop mathematical models for estimating VS and dVS outputs of lactating dairy cows. Dry matter intake, dietary nutrient contents, milk yield and composition, body weight, and days in milk were used as potential predictor variables. Multicollinearity, model simplicity, and random study effects were taken into account during model development that used 857 VS and dVS measurements made on individual cows (kg/cow per day) from 43 metabolic trials conducted at the USDA Energy and Metabolism laboratory in Beltsville, Maryland. The new models and the IPCC Tier 2 model were evaluated with an independent data set including 209 VS and dVS measurements (kg/cow per day) from 2 metabolic trials conducted at the University of California, Davis. Organic matter intake (kg/d) and dietary crude protein and neutral detergent fiber contents (% of dry matter) were significantly associated with VS. A new model including these variables fitted best to data. When evaluated with independent data, the new model had a root mean squared prediction error as a percentage of average observed value (RMSPE) of 12.5%. Mean and slope biases were negligible at