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Clinical and economic impact of school‐based nonavalent human papillomavirus vaccine on women in Singapore: a transmission dynamic mathematical model analysis
Objective To examine the epidemiological and economic impact of a nine‐valent (nonavalent) human papillomavirus (HPV) 6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 vaccine programme for young teenagers in Singapore. Design Mathematical modelling. Setting Pharmaco‐economic simulation projection. Population Singapore dem...
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Published in: | BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology 2018-03, Vol.125 (4), p.478-486 |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | |
Citations: | Items that this one cites Items that cite this one |
Online Access: | Get full text |
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Summary: | Objective
To examine the epidemiological and economic impact of a nine‐valent (nonavalent) human papillomavirus (HPV) 6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 vaccine programme for young teenagers in Singapore.
Design
Mathematical modelling.
Setting
Pharmaco‐economic simulation projection.
Population
Singapore demography.
Methods
Clinical, epidemiological and financial data from Singapore were used in a validated HPV transmission dynamic mathematical model to analyse the impact of nonavalent HPV vaccination over quadrivalent and bivalent vaccines in a school‐based 2‐dose vaccination for 11‐ to 12‐year‐old girls in the country. The model assumed routine cytology screening in the current rate (50%) and vaccine coverage rate of 80%.
Main outcome measures
Changes over a 100‐year time period in the incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer, case load of genital warts, and incremental cost–effectiveness ratio (ICER).
Results
Compared with bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccination programmes, nonavalent HPV universal vaccination resulted in an additional reduction of HPV31/33/45/52/58 related CIN1 of 40.5%, CIN 2/3 of 35.4%, cervical cancer of 23.5%, and cervical cancer mortality of 20.2%. Compared with bivalent HPV vaccination, there was an additional reduction in HPV‐6/11 related CIN1 of 75.7%, and genital warts of 78.9% in women and 73.4% in men. Over the 100 years, after applying a discount of 3%, disease management cost will be reduced by 32.5% (versus bivalent) and 7.5% (versus quadrivalent). The incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality‐adjusted life‐year gained was SGD 929 compared with bivalent vaccination and SGD 9864 compared with quadrivalent vaccination.
Conclusion
Universal two‐dose nonavalent HPV vaccination for 11‐ to 12‐year‐old adolescent women is very cost‐effective in Singapore.
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Nonavalent HPV vaccination of 11‐ to 12‐year‐old girls is cost‐effective in Singapore.
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Nonavalent HPV vaccination of 11‐ to 12‐year‐old girls is cost‐effective in Singapore. |
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ISSN: | 1470-0328 1471-0528 |
DOI: | 10.1111/1471-0528.15106 |