A scoring model for predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia in a screened population of asymptomatic Japanese individuals

Background Risk stratification of screened populations could help improve colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Use of the modified Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score has been proposed in the Asia-Pacific region. This study was performed to build a new useful scoring model for CRC screening...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of gastroenterology 2018-10, Vol.53 (10), p.1109-1119
Main Authors: Sekiguchi, Masau, Kakugawa, Yasuo, Matsumoto, Minori, Matsuda, Takahisa
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abdominal Surgery
Adult
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Alcohol Drinking - adverse effects
Analysis
Asymptomatic Diseases - epidemiology
Body Mass Index
Cancer
Colon
Colonoscopy
Colorectal cancer
Colorectal carcinoma
Colorectal Neoplasms - diagnosis
Colorectal Neoplasms - diagnostic imaging
Colorectal Neoplasms - epidemiology
Colorectal Neoplasms - pathology
Colorectal Surgery
Confidence intervals
Diagnosis
Early Detection of Cancer - methods
Family Health
Female
Gastroenterology
Hepatology
Humans
Japan - epidemiology
Logistic Models
Male
Mass Screening
Medical research
Medical screening
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Medicine, Experimental
Middle Aged
Multivariate Analysis
Neoplasm Grading - methods
Original Article—Alimentary Tract
Prevalence
Risk Factors
Risk groups
Sex Factors
Smoking
Smoking - adverse effects
Surgical Oncology
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Summary:Background Risk stratification of screened populations could help improve colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Use of the modified Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score has been proposed in the Asia-Pacific region. This study was performed to build a new useful scoring model for CRC screening. Methods Data were reviewed from 5218 asymptomatic Japanese individuals who underwent their first screening colonoscopy. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN), and a new scoring model for the prediction of ACN was developed based on the results. The discriminatory capability of the new model and the modified APCS score were assessed and compared. Internal validation was also performed. Results ACN was detected in 225 participants. An 8-point scoring model for the prediction of ACN was developed using five independent risk factors for ACN (male sex, higher age, presence of two or more first-degree relatives with CRC, body mass index of > 22.5 kg/m 2 , and smoking history of > 18.5 pack-years). The prevalence of ACN was 1.6% (34/2172), 5.3% (127/2419), and 10.2% (64/627) in participants with scores of
ISSN:0944-1174
1435-5922
DOI:10.1007/s00535-018-1433-7