Birth calendar changes by generation in the low fertility countries: is this just delayed entry into childbearing?

• Published in: Population (France) 2001-06, Vol.56 (3), p.397-397
• Main Authors: Frejka, T, Calot, G
• Format: Article
• Language: fre
• ISSN: 0032-4663

Fertility change since 1945 has been characterized by important changes in the age distribution of births (the fertility calendar). This article reviews and analyses these changes for generations in low fertility countries in the second half of the twentieth century. The generations born in the western countries around 1940 entered into childbearing earlier than the 1930 generation. Conditions changed completely with the generations born in the 1950s. These women had accumulated large birth deficits at the start of their reproductive lives which they made up for, partially or even entirely, as they approached and then passed age 30. The fertility reduction at low ages continued in the generations born in the 1960s and 1970s. In the former Communist countries, the fertility decline among young women began in the generations born at the end of the 1950s and continued with subsequent generations. In almost all the low fertility countries, each cohort born in the 1960s and 1970s has fewer children than the previous cohorts. Given the size of the birth deficits accumulated at the younger ages, it seems unrealistic to hope that these generations will eventually reach replacement level. Postponed births, that the couples involved believe to be temporary but which will never be fully made up, combined with a conscious decision to have fewer children than previous generations, appear to characterize current trends in most of these countries.