How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather‐related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision‐making is poo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Disasters 2019-01, Vol.43 (1), p.88-109
Main Authors: Wernstedt, Kris, Roberts, Patrick S., Arvai, Joseph, Redmond, Kelly
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bias
Climate
cognitive
Communication
Decision making
Disasters
Emergencies
Emergency management
Emergency preparedness
Emergency response
Flood forecasting
Flood management
Floods
Hazards
Natural disasters
risk
Surveying
Uncertainty
Weather
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Summary:Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather‐related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision‐making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national‐level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.
ISSN:0361-3666
1467-7717
DOI:10.1111/disa.12293