Loading…

Intimate partner violence in Madrid: a time series analysis (2008–2016)

This study analyzes whether there are time patterns in different intimate partner violence (IPV) indicators and aims to obtain models that can predict the behavior of these time series. Univariate autoregressive moving average models were used to analyze the time series corresponding to the number o...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Annals of epidemiology 2018-09, Vol.28 (9), p.635-640
Main Authors: Sanz-Barbero, Belén, Linares, Cristina, Vives-Cases, Carmen, González, José Luis, López-Ossorio, Juan José, Díaz, Julio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:This study analyzes whether there are time patterns in different intimate partner violence (IPV) indicators and aims to obtain models that can predict the behavior of these time series. Univariate autoregressive moving average models were used to analyze the time series corresponding to the number of daily calls to the 016 telephone IPV helpline and the number of daily police reports filed in the Community of Madrid during the period 2008–2015. Predictions were made for both dependent variables for 2016. The daily number of calls to the 016 telephone IPV helpline decreased during January 2008–April 2012 and increased during April 2012–December 2015. No statistically significant change was observed in the trend of the number of daily IPV police reports. The number of IPV police reports filed increased on weekends and on Christmas holidays. The number of calls to the 016 IPV help line increased on Mondays. Using data from 2008 to 2015, the univariate autoregressive moving average models predicted 64.2% of calls to the 016 telephone IPV helpline and 73.2% of police reports filed during 2016 in the Community of Madrid. Our results suggest the need for an increase in police and judicial resources on nonwork days. Also, the 016 telephone IPV helpline should be especially active on work days. •It is unknown whether intimate partner violence (IPV) against women responds to cycles that permit prediction of periods in which a woman could be at increased risk of suffering aggression.•The time series analysis of the number of daily calls to the 016 helpline, as well as the daily number of reports filed, could help to predict possible periods of risk.•The findings of this work show that IPV reports increase during the Christmas holidays and on weekends. Calls to the 016 helpline decrease during the Easter holidays and on nonwork days and increase on Mondays.•Our results suggest the need to increase police and judicial resources on nonwork days. 016 helpline assistance should be especially active on work days.•Univariate ARIMA modeling used in this model could be useful regarding IPV from both a diagnostic and a prognostic point of view.
ISSN:1047-2797
1873-2585
DOI:10.1016/j.annepidem.2018.05.007