Generating streamflow forecasts for the Yakima River Basin using large-scale climate predictors

Multifaceted demands on western water supply, such as irrigation and mandated biological flows, coupled with climate variability are increasing the importance of supply forecasting to water managers. In this study, we develop and examine the accuracy of a seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting mod...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) 2007-08, Vol.341 (3), p.131-143
Main Authors: Opitz-Stapleton, Sarah, Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu, Rajagopalan, Balaji
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
climate models
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Ensemble
Exact sciences and technology
Forecast
Freshwater
hydrologic models
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Marine
Pacific North American weather patterns
PNA
prediction
rivers
runoff
spring
stream flow
Streamflow
Water resources management
watershed hydrology
watersheds
Yakima River Basin
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Summary:Multifaceted demands on western water supply, such as irrigation and mandated biological flows, coupled with climate variability are increasing the importance of supply forecasting to water managers. In this study, we develop and examine the accuracy of a seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting model for the Yakima River Basin. The model incorporates large-scale climate information, related to the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, with the objective of increasing the skill of the forecasts for water managers and stakeholders in the basin. Our study has found that spring runoff in the Yakima Basin is strongly correlated (correlation significant at the 5% significance level) with two of the large-scale circulation patterns associated with the PNA pattern from the preceding fall and winter seasons. Incorporating such climate information into our forecasts allowed a longer lead-time (a season in advance) planning period for water managers and stakeholders from the current practice of an April 1st forecast. The ensemble nature of our streamflow forecasts provides continuous probability distributions that will help the decision maker to objectively quantify the associated risk with selected streamflow values.
ISSN:0022-1694
1879-2707
DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.03.024