A simple SI-type model for HIV/AIDS with media and self-imposed psychological fear

• Published in: Mathematical biosciences 2018-12, Vol.306, p.160-169
• Main Authors: Ghosh, Indrajit, Tiwari, Pankaj Kumar, Samanta, Sudip, Elmojtaba, Ibrahim M., Al-Salti, Nasser, Chattopadhyay, Joydev
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Acquired immune deficiency syndrome; AIDS; Awareness; Basic Reproduction Number; Disease control; Disease transmission; Dynamics; Employment; Epidemic model; Epidemics; Fear; Fear & phobias; Global sensitivity analysis; Health Behavior; Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice; HIV; HIV Infections - prevention & control; HIV Infections - psychology; HIV Infections - transmission; HIV/AIDS; Human immunodeficiency virus; Humans; Infectious diseases; Mass Media; Mathematical Concepts; Mathematical models; Models, Psychological; Morbidity; Nonlinear Dynamics; Parameter estimation; Parameter identification; Parameter sensitivity; Perceptions; Reproduction; Self-imposed psychological fear; Sensitivity analysis; Stability analysis; Tanzania; Uganda
• ISSN: 0025-5564; 1879-3134
• DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2018.09.014

•An SI-type mathematical model is developed and studied to assess the impacts of awareness and self-imposed psychological fear on HIV/AIDS.•Our finding supports the assertion that the dissemination rate of awareness and the strength of psychological fear will effectively decrease the epidemic potential.•To eliminate the threat of HIV infection, awareness is more effective than selfimposed psychological fear.•Implementation programs through media campaigns and several interactive discussions to the local people may reduce the burden of HIV. Infectious diseases can have a large impact on society, as they cause morbidity, mortality, unemployment, inequality and other adverse effects. Mathematical models are invaluable tools in understanding and describing disease dynamics with preventive measures for controlling the disease. The roles of media coverage and behavioral changes due to externally imposed factors on the disease dynamics are well studied. However, the effect of self-imposed psychological fear on the disease transmission has not been considered in extant research, and this gap is addressed in the present investigation. We propose a simple SI-type model for HIV/AIDS to assess the effects of media and self-imposed psychological fear on the disease dynamics. Local and global dynamics of the system are studied. Global sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most influential parameters that have significant impact on the basic reproduction number. After calibrating our model using HIV case data-sets for Uganda and Tanzania, we calculate the basic reproduction numbers in the study period using the estimated parameters. Furthermore, a comparison of the effects of awareness and self-imposed psychological fear effects reveals that awareness is more effective in eliminating the burden of HIV infection.