Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2018-12, Vol.362 (6419)
• Main Authors: Penn, Justin L, Deutsch, Curtis, Payne, Jonathan L, Sperling, Erik A
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aerobic capacity; Atmospheric models; Biodiversity; Biogeochemical cycles; Biogeography; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Computer simulation; Depletion; Earth; Extinction; Fossils; Fractions; Geochemistry; Global warming; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Habitat loss; Habitats; Hypoxia; Latitude; Marine animals; Marine organisms; Mass extinctions; Metabolism; Oxygen; Permian; Physiology; Predictions; Selectivity; Sensitivity; Species; Species extinction; Stress (physiology); Stresses; Survival; Temperature dependence; Temperature effects; Terrestrial environments; Triassic; Tropical environments
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.aat1327

Rapid climate change at the end of the Permian Period (~252 million years ago) is the hypothesized trigger for the largest mass extinction in Earth's history. We present model simulations of the Permian/Triassic climate transition that reproduce the ocean warming and oxygen (O ) loss indicated by the geologic record. The effect of these changes on animal survival is evaluated using the Metabolic Index (Φ), a measure of scope for aerobic activity governed by organismal traits sampled in diverse modern species. Modeled loss of aerobic habitat predicts lower extinction intensity in the tropics, a pattern confirmed with a spatially explicit analysis of the marine fossil record. The combined physiological stresses of ocean warming and O loss can account for more than half the magnitude of the "Great Dying."