Prediction of the development of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder in sexually abused children using a random forest classifier

• Published in: Journal of affective disorders 2021-01, Vol.279, p.256-265
• Main Authors: Gokten, Emel Sari, Uyulan, Caglar
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adolescent; Child; Child Abuse; Child Abuse, Sexual; Childhood sexual abuse; Depression; Depressive Disorder, Major; Humans; Machine learning; Post-traumatic stress disorder; Psychiatric disorders; Random forest; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic - diagnosis; Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic - epidemiology
• ISSN: 0165-0327; 1573-2517
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2020.10.006

•Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder are among the most common psychiatric disorders.•Machine learning techniques are powerful methods that can be used to predict psychiatric disorders.•A predictive model was established based on a random forest classifier.•The mean values and standard deviation of the 10-k cross-validated results were obtained as high accuracy for both depression and post-traumatic stress disorder.•The results should be supported by studies with larger samples. Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are among the most common psychiatric disorders observed in children and adolescents exposed to sexual abuse. The present study aimed to investigate the effects of many factors such as the characteristics of a child, abuse, and the abuser, family type of the child, and the role of social support in the development of psychiatric disorders using machine learning techniques. The records of 482 children and adolescents who were determined to have been sexually abused were examined to predict the development of depression and PTSD. Each child was evaluated by a child and adolescent psychiatrist in the psychiatric aspect according to the DSM-V. Through the data of both groups, a predictive model was established based on a random forest classifier. The mean values and standard deviation of the 10-k cross-validated results were obtained as accuracy: 0.82% (+/- 0.19%), F1: 0.81% (+/- 0.19%), precision: 0.81% (+/- 0.19%), recall: 0.80% (+/- 0.19%) for children with depression; and accuracy: 0.72% (+/- 0.12%), F1: 0.71% (+/- 0.12%), precision: 0.72% (+/- 0.12%), recall: 0.71% (+/- 0.12%) for children with PTSD, respectively. ROC curves were drawn for both, and the AUC results were obtained as 0.88 for major depressive disorder and 0.76 for PTSD. Machine learning techniques are powerful methods that can be used to predict disorders that may develop after sexual abuse. The results should be supported by studies with larger samples, which are repeated and applied to other risk groups.