The development of computer software for risk analysis: A decision support system development case study

Over the past eight years the Projects Department of BP's Group Engineering and Technical Centre has evolved a risk analysis methodology which is applied during the project appraisal phase to all major engineering construction projects. The computational methods in current use are based on the...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:European journal of operational research 1987, Vol.29 (3), p.252-261
Main Authors: Clark, P., Chapman, C.B.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Applied sciences
Case studies
Decision support
Decision support systems
Exact sciences and technology
Monte Carlo simulation
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Operations research
Petroleum industry
Planning. Forecasting
Risk
risk analysis
Risk assessment
Software
Systems development
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Over the past eight years the Projects Department of BP's Group Engineering and Technical Centre has evolved a risk analysis methodology which is applied during the project appraisal phase to all major engineering construction projects. The computational methods in current use are based on the Common Interval and Memory (CIM) approach, which allows the direct enumeration of distribution combinations rather than the more common Monte Carlo simulation approach. Computer software has been developed in-house to apply these techniques. The programs are written in Fortran and are designed to be used interactively. This paper reviews the general framework of risk analysis applications on BP projects and the lessons learned in developing the first generation of computer software, used until 1985. Some of these lessons may be relevant to decision support system development by others. The development of a new generation of software, now implemented, is also discussed briefly.
ISSN:0377-2217
1872-6860
DOI:10.1016/0377-2217(87)90239-6