Long-lead seasonal forecast - where do we stand?

The performance of five ENSO prediction systems are examined: two are dynamical; one is a hybrid coupled model; and two are statistical. With increasing physical understanding, dynamically based forecasts have the potential to become more skillful than purely statistical ones. At a lead time of 6 mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1994-01, Vol.75 (11), p.2097-2114
Main Authors: Barnston, Anthony G, van den Dool, Huug M, Zebiak, Stephen E, Barnett, Tim P, Ji, Ming, Rodenhuis, David R, Cane, Mark A, Leetmaa, Ants, Graham, Nicholas E, Ropelewski, Chester R, Kousky, Vernon E, O'Lenic, Edward A, Livezey, Robert E
Format: Article
Language:English
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The performance of five ENSO prediction systems are examined: two are dynamical; one is a hybrid coupled model; and two are statistical. With increasing physical understanding, dynamically based forecasts have the potential to become more skillful than purely statistical ones. At a lead time of 6 months, the SST forecasts have an overall correlation skill in the 0.60s for 1982-93, which easily outperforms persistence and is regarded as useful. Both types of forecasts are not much better than local higher-order autoregressive controls. However, continual progress is being made in understanding relations among global oceanic and atmospheric climate-scale anomaly fields.
ISSN:0003-0007