Spatial and interdecadal differences in climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 2014

  The evident climate jump after 2000 in China may have greatly influenced the production of winter wheat, which is one of the nation’s major grain crops. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production and identify the climatic factors primarily responsible, we used daily meteo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of biometeorology 2022-10, Vol.66 (10), p.2091-2104
Main Authors: Li, Ke-xin, Zheng, Fei
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal Physiology
Biological and Medical Physics
Biophysics
Climate change
Climatic extremes
Crop production
Earth and Environmental Science
Environment
Environmental Health
Environmental impact
Extreme cold
Extreme low temperatures
Global warming
Grain crops
Growing season
Meteorological data
Meteorology
Original Paper
Plant Physiology
Radiation
Triticum aestivum
Wheat
Winter
Winter climates
Winter wheat
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Summary:  The evident climate jump after 2000 in China may have greatly influenced the production of winter wheat, which is one of the nation’s major grain crops. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production and identify the climatic factors primarily responsible, we used daily meteorological data from 2244 stations and integrated indicators to examine the decadal changes in the potential plantable zone (PPZ), growth periods, and climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2014. The results showed the following: (1) The PPZ has decreased by approximately 9%, and the main reason may be the increased frequency of extreme cold events in northern China from 2000 to 2014. (2) In most of the PPZ, the suitable sowing date has been delayed, the potential maturity date has advanced, and total days during the potential growing season have significantly decreased because of the increasing temperature. (3) The suitable area and optimal area of winter wheat have significantly decreased by 9% and 13%, respectively. The changes in climatic suitability are affected by both temperature and radiation in the north, whereas the impact is more from precipitation in the south. The climate may be changing in a direction unsuitable for winter wheat. As global warming and climate extremes intensify in the future, winter wheat production may become more challenging, and adequate measures should be adopted to guarantee reliable and high yields.
ISSN:0020-7128
1432-1254
DOI:10.1007/s00484-022-02343-w