Age period cohort analysis of rheumatic heart disease in high-income countries

Introduction Rheumatic heart disease is considered well-controlled in high-income countries; however, its actual trends in mortality remain unclarified. We analyzed trends in mortality from rheumatic heart disease in association with age, period, and birth cohort. Methods We analyzed the WHO mortali...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Clinical research in cardiology 2023-11, Vol.112 (11), p.1568-1576
Main Authors: Hibino, Makoto, Halkos, Michael E., Murphy, Douglas A., Dhingra, Nitish K., Verma, Raj, Hibino, Hiromi, Aune, Dagfinn, Yanagawa, Bobby, Bhatt, Deepak L., Verma, Subodh
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Cardiology
Cardiovascular disease
Cardiovascular diseases
Cohort analysis
Disease control
Drift
Heart
Heart diseases
Heterogeneity
High income
Income
Industrialized nations
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Mortality
Original Paper
Rheumatic heart disease
Trends
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Summary:Introduction Rheumatic heart disease is considered well-controlled in high-income countries; however, its actual trends in mortality remain unclarified. We analyzed trends in mortality from rheumatic heart disease in association with age, period, and birth cohort. Methods We analyzed the WHO mortality database to determine trends in mortality from rheumatic heart disease in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Australia, USA, and Canada from 2000 to 2020. We used age-cohort-period modeling to estimate cohort and period effects. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group) and heterogeneity were calculated. Results In the most recent year, crude mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates ranged from 1.10 in the USA to 6.17 in Germany, and 0.32 (95% CI 0.31–0.34) in Japan and 1.70 (95% CI 1.65–1.75) in Germany, respectively. During the observation period, while Germany had a constant trend in overall annual percentage change, all the other countries had significant decreasing trends ( p  
ISSN:1861-0684
1861-0692
DOI:10.1007/s00392-023-02168-6