Analysis and simulation of the driving mechanism and ecological effects of land cover change in the Weihe River basin, China

• Published in: Journal of environmental management 2023-10, Vol.344, p.118320-118320, Article 118320
• Main Authors: Xu, Wenjin, Song, Jinxi, Long, Yongqing, Mao, Ruichen, Tang, Bin, Li, Bingjie
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Driving factors; Integrated ecological effect; Land cover change; Multiple ecological effect; PLUS model
• ISSN: 0301-4797; 1095-8630
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118320

Land cover change (LCC) is both a consequence and a cause of global environmental change. This paper attempts to construct a framework to reveal the driving mechanism and ecological effects of different ecological factors under LCC and to explore the ecological characteristics of future LCC. A rule-mining framework based on a land expansion analysis strategy (LEAS) in the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to analyze the drivers of LCC. Neighborhood analysis and ecological effect index were used to investigate multiple ecological effects of LCC. Remote sensing-based ecological indices (RSEI) and the PLUS and stepwise regression model were introduced to explore and predict the integrated ecological effect of LCC. Focusing on the Weihe River basin, study's main drivers of LCC were precipitation, temperature, elevation, population, water table depth, proximity to governments and motorways, GDP, and topsoil organic carbon were the main drivers of LCC. Change directionality were similar for the effects of greenness and biomass formation but opposite for summertime and wintertime temperature. In addition, the conversion of land cover types to cropland had the most significant integrated ecological effect, followed by forest, grassland-shrubland, and other types. The RSEI is predicted to rise to 0.77 in 2030, and the areas where the ecological quality grade will improve and decrease are concentrated on the east and west sides of Ziwuling Mountain, respectively. The findings of this study have practical significance for land management and ecological protection. •The PLUS Model is used to explore driving mechanism of land cover change (LCC).•Ecological effects of LCC are analyzed from multiple and integrated perspectives.•The integrated ecological effect of land cover types converted to cropland is the most significant.•The PLUS model with stepwise regression predicts a decreasing trend of RSEI in 2030.