Renewable energy transition, transmission system impacts and regional development – a mismatch between national planning and local development

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2023-09, Vol.278, p.127925, Article 127925
• Main Authors: Nielsen, Steffen, Østergaard, Poul Alberg, Sperling, Karl
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Distribution grid impacts; electricity; energy; Energy transition; geographic information systems; geography; heat; industrialization; industry; Power-to-x; renewable energy sources; Renewable energy systems; stakeholders; surveys; Transmission grid impacts; transportation
• ISSN: 0360-5442
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127925

The energy transition rests on several pillars including the electrification of heating, transportation, and industry to enable the better exploitation of renewable energy sources. This changes the geography of the energy system, where power changes from being centrally produced to being more geographically distributed. The electrification will add new, large point demands to the electricity system. The distributed generation, point demands and a higher level of electricity transit all suggest grid impacts beyond design levels. Concurrently, the transition relies on coordinated actions at local and national levels with potential mismatch issues. This article probes into these developments for a larger Danish region. Based on a survey of local actions, it investigates whether the transmission grid can withstand the changes and to what extent grid limitations create barriers for industrial development. The work is based on geographical information system (GIS)-based analyses of production and demand, survey-based stakeholder consultation to unveil expected demand and production development, and grid analyses. Results indicate that the transmission system limits the development, and that permissions should not only be based on local conditions as reported by municipalities but should also factor in spatially distributed national targets. This thus calls for improved coordination between administrative levels. •Survey of near-and mid-term electricity demand increases.•Survey of near-and mid-term electricity production changes.•Energy system and transmission system load simulations for future scenarios.•Transmission grid sets a strong limitation on feasible development trajectories.•Analyses reveal a strong need to coordinate energy system and regional development.