The Korea Model: Why an Armistice Offers the Best Hope for Peace in Ukraine

• Published in: Foreign affairs (New York, N.Y.) N.Y.), 2023-07, Vol.102 (4), p.36-51
• Main Author: Malkasian, Carter
• Format: Magazinearticle
• Language: English
• Subjects: Armistices; China; Cold War; Communism; Diplomatic negotiations in international disputes; Evaluation; Generals; History; Industrial districts; Invasions; Korean history; Korean War; Leadership; Mao Zedong (1893-1976); Military aid; Military air strikes; Military intervention; Military weapons; News; Openness; Pacific settlement of international disputes; Peace negotiations; Prisoners of war & missing in action; Russia; South Korea; Soviet history; Truces & cease fires; Ukraine
• ISSN: 0015-7120; 2327-7793

In the middle of August 1952, Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai traveled nearly 4,000 miles to Moscow to meet with the Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. Zhou was acting as an emissary for the leader of China, Mao Zedong. The two Communist powers were allies at the time, but it was not a partnership of equals: the Soviet Union was a superpower, and China depended on it for economic assistance and military equipment. Two years earlier, Mao and Stalin had embarked on a joint venture of sorts, giving their blessing to the North Korean leader Kim Il Sung when he invaded South Korea. Their hopes had been high; even though the United States immediately rushed to South Korea's aid, Stalin telegrammed Kim in the wake of the invasion to tell him that he had "no doubt that in the soonest time the interventionists will be driven out of Korea with ignominy."Things had not gone according to plan. In the fall of 1950, as troops led by U.S. General Douglas MacArthur advanced through North Korea, China directly intervened. By the middle of 1951, a bloody stalemate had set in along the 38th parallel, the line that had delineated North from South Korea before the invasion. Negotiations between the opposing sides began in July of that year. Their purpose was to reach an armistice and set the stage for discussions about Korea's future. The talks had deadlocked, however, over the details of exchanging prisoners of war.When Zhou traveled to Moscow in the summer of 1952, the situation was looking grim for the Communists. Airstrikes had destroyed the North's industrial facilities and heavily damaged every city. Food was short. In February, Kim told Mao that he had "no desire to continue the war." Around five months later, Kim pleaded with Stalin to bring about "the soonest conclusion of an armistice." But Stalin did nothing. Like Stalin, Mao was determined to stand fast in the face of U.S. demands, and he was less worried than Kim was about the battlefield. Like Kim, however, Mao knew that his country was suffering.Over the course of the Cold War, Zhou would earn a reputation as a cool diplomat. Yet arriving in Moscow as the bearer of bad news, he could not have been at ease. His task was to sound out Stalin's openness to a truce. Stalin had been behind the war, and it seemed reasonable to assume that talk of shutting it down would displease him.