A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century

The current distribution and future projections of permafrost are examined in a fully coupled global climate model, the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) with explicit treatment of frozen soil processes. The spatial extent of simulated present‐day permafrost in CCSM3 agrees well with...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2005-12, Vol.32 (24), p.L24401.1-n/a
Main Authors: Lawrence, David M., Slater, Andrew G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
Exact sciences and technology
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Summary:The current distribution and future projections of permafrost are examined in a fully coupled global climate model, the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) with explicit treatment of frozen soil processes. The spatial extent of simulated present‐day permafrost in CCSM3 agrees well with observational estimates – an area, excluding ice sheets, of 10.5 million km2. By 2100, as little as 1.0 million km2 of near‐surface permafrost remains. Freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean rises by 28% over the same period, largely due to increases in precipitation that outpace increases in evaporation, with about 15% of the rise directly attributable to melting ground ice. Such large changes in permafrost may provoke feedbacks such as activation of the soil carbon pool and a northward expansion of shrubs and forests.
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1029/2005GL025080