AlphaFold2 Can Predict Single-Mutation Effects

AlphaFold2 (AF) is a promising tool, but is it accurate enough to predict single mutation effects? Here, we report that the localized structural deformation between protein pairs differing by only 1-3 mutations-as measured by the effective strain-is correlated across 3901 experimental and AF-predict...

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Published in:Physical review letters 2023-11, Vol.131 (21), p.218401-218401, Article 218401
Main Authors: McBride, John M, Polev, Konstantin, Abdirasulov, Amirbek, Reinharz, Vladimir, Grzybowski, Bartosz A, Tlusty, Tsvi
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:AlphaFold2 (AF) is a promising tool, but is it accurate enough to predict single mutation effects? Here, we report that the localized structural deformation between protein pairs differing by only 1-3 mutations-as measured by the effective strain-is correlated across 3901 experimental and AF-predicted structures. Furthermore, analysis of ∼11 000 proteins shows that the local structural change correlates with various phenotypic changes. These findings suggest that AF can predict the range and magnitude of single-mutation effects on average, and we propose a method to improve precision of AF predictions and to indicate when predictions are unreliable.
ISSN:0031-9007
1079-7114
DOI:10.1103/PhysRevLett.131.218401