Curling's paradox

There is an age old debate in curling about whether it is better to be down one point with last shot, or ahead by one point without. The objective of this paper is to apply sensitivity analysis as a methodology to differentiate what appears to be two seemingly equal scenarios. A probability tree is...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Computers & operations research 2006-07, Vol.33 (7), p.2023-2031
Main Authors: Kostuk, Kent J, Willoughby, Keith A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Probability
Sensitivity analysis
Sports
Studies
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:There is an age old debate in curling about whether it is better to be down one point with last shot, or ahead by one point without. The objective of this paper is to apply sensitivity analysis as a methodology to differentiate what appears to be two seemingly equal scenarios. A probability tree is developed for each scenario and a comparison is made based on an expected value basis. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine whether preference changes with changes in the key parameters. Indeed, preference is impacted by changes in these parameters. In general there is no universally preferred scenario; under specific conditions a general preference can be established. Ultimately, preference for one scenario over the other is based on an individual's perception of the probability of scoring with last shot. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
ISSN:0305-0548
0305-0548
DOI:10.1016/j.cor.2004.09.026