Simulating the impact of optimized prevention and control measures on the transmission of monkeypox in the United States: A model‐based study

This study aimed to develop a modified susceptible‐exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model to evaluate monkeypox epidemics in the United States and explore more optimized prevention and control measures. To further assess the impact of public health measures on the transmission of monkeypox, differe...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of medical virology 2024-02, Vol.96 (2), p.e29419-n/a
Main Authors: Cao, Yawen, Fang, Wenbin, Chen, Yingying, Zhang, Hengchuan, Ni, Ruyu, Pan, Guixia
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Diagnosis
Environmental risk
Epidemics
Evaluation
Immunization
monkeypox virus
Mpox
Prevention
prevention and control measures
Public health
Risk
Simulation
Simulation analysis
susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered model
Vaccination
Citations: Items that this one cites
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:This study aimed to develop a modified susceptible‐exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model to evaluate monkeypox epidemics in the United States and explore more optimized prevention and control measures. To further assess the impact of public health measures on the transmission of monkeypox, different intervention scenarios were developed based on the classic SEIR model, considering reducing contact, enhancing vaccination, diagnosis delay, and environmental transmission risk, respectively. We evaluated the impact of different measures by simulating their spread in different scenarios. During the simulation period, 8709 people were infected with monkeypox. The simulation analysis showed that: (1) the most effective measures to control monkeypox transmission during the early stage of the epidemic were reducing contact and enhancing vaccination, with cumulative infections at 51.20% and 41.90% of baseline levels, respectively; (2) shortening diagnosis time would delay the peak time of the epidemic by 96 days; and (3) the risk of environmental transmission of monkeypox virus was relatively low. This study indirectly proved the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures, such as reducing contact, enhancing vaccination, shortening diagnosis time, and low risk of environmental transmission, which also provided an important reference and containment experience for nonepidemic countries.
ISSN:0146-6615
1096-9071
1096-9071
DOI:10.1002/jmv.29419