Predicting International Freight Flows for Trade: Simultaneous Multimodal, Multicommodity, Network Equilibrium Model

• Published in: Transportation research record 2004, Vol.1882 (1), p.129-139
• Main Authors: Safwat, K. Nabil A., Hasan, Mohamad K.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0361-1981; 2169-4052
• DOI: 10.3141/1882-16

Between 1990 and 1997 intraregional trade was very low among the member countries of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). Their export share fell from 10.9% to 8.6% of their total world exports, and their import share rose from 9.1% to 10.4% of their total world imports. Among the main reasons were complicated, costly, and time-consuming border controls and customs formalities. To overcome these obstacles and to promote greater economic integration among its members, ESCWA developed an integrated transport system in the Arab Mashreq (ITSAM). ITSAM comprises three basic components: an integrated (multimodal) transport network, an associated information system, and a methodological framework for issue analysis and policy formulation. The present research focuses on the development of an international freight simultaneous transportation equilibrium model (IFSTEM) to predict equilibrium freight flow patterns (times and costs) that can describe the behaviors of exporters and importers of different commodities over an international multimodal network covering ESCWA member countries. IFSTEM is considered a central component of the ITSAM methodological framework. The application of IFSTEM to the prototype shows that the model satisfies the behavioral aspects of the freight system, and its solution procedure is computationally tractable. This should encourage the full implementation of IFSTEM (after its calibration process) as a policy analysis tool and a decision-support system for transport policy makers in the region. The approach can easily be extended and applied to other regions of the world.