Drugs, guns, and violent crime in California

• Published in: The International journal of drug policy 2024-05, Vol.127, p.104413, Article 104413
• Main Authors: Stewart, Susan L., Kagawa, Rose M.C., Buggs, Shani A.L., Wright, Mona A., Wintemute, Garen J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; California - epidemiology; Crime - statistics & numerical data; Drug abuse; Female; Firearms; Firearms - legislation & jurisprudence; Firearms - statistics & numerical data; Goldstein framework; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Prospective Studies; Time-to-event analysis; Violence - statistics & numerical data; Violent crime; Young Adult
• ISSN: 0955-3959; 1873-4758; 1873-4758
• DOI: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2024.104413

•Drug charges tripled the risk of violent crime arrest after legal handgun purchase.•The increase in risk was similar for those with prior marijuana charges only.•Drug charge history also increased the risk of additional violent crime arrests.•Mitigating these risks requires a better understanding of their nature and causes. There is evidence linking use of controlled substances with perpetration of interpersonal violence. While the United States constitution protects the right to own a firearm, federal law prohibits firearm purchase and possession by persons believed to be at high risk for violence, including those who use controlled substances unlawfully. We report here the results of a 13-year prospective observational study on the risk of violent crime associated with a history of criminal drug charges in a cohort of 79,678 legal purchasers of handguns in California in 2001. The main outcomes were post-purchase charges for any violent crime, violent Crime Index crimes (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), and firearm-related violent crimes. The main exposure of interest was a history of pre-purchase charge(s) for drug-related offenses; we examined as a secondary exposure a history of marijuana-related charges. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards multiple events models. We found that legal handgun purchasers in California with a history of drug-related charges, even those with marijuana charges only, had triple the risk of a post-purchase violent crime charge compared to purchasers with no criminal charges (drug charges only: aHR=2.9, 95 % CI 2.2–3.8; marijuana charges only: aHR=3.3, 95 % CI 1.8–6.0). In addition, a criminal history of drug charges only vs. no criminal history was associated with increased risk of one or more violent crime charges after the first post-purchase arrest event (aHR=1.6, 95 % CI 1.2–2.3). It is incumbent on researchers and policy makers to understand the nature and causes of this risk in order to take effective steps towards mitigation.