Investigating the temporal dynamics of motor vehicle collision density patterns in urban road networks – A case study of New York

• Published in: Journal of safety research 2024-06, Vol.89, p.116-134
• Main Authors: Chang, Haoliang, Xu, Corey Kewei, Tang, Tian
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data; Cluster Analysis; Environment Design; Geographic Information Science; Humans; Kernel Density Estimation; Motor vehicle collisions; Motor Vehicles - statistics & numerical data; New York City - epidemiology; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Time-series Clustering
• ISSN: 0022-4375; 1879-1247
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jsr.2024.02.009

•This study tracks the roads with different collision density patterns over time.•A spatio-temporal network KDE method was used to compute collision densities.•Roads with various collision density patterns were grouped by clustering method.•Spatio-temporal and semantic analyses were conducted to profile the risky roads.•The developed method can help the transport department propose the traffic treatment. Introduction: Motor vehicle collisions are a leading source of mortality and injury on urban highways. From a temporal perspective, the determination of a road segment as being collision-prone over time can fluctuate dramatically, making it difficult for transportation agencies to propose traffic interventions. However, there has been limited research to identify and characterize collision-prone road segments with varying collision density patterns over time. Method: This study proposes an identification and characterization framework that profiles collision-prone roads with various collision density variations. We first employ the spatio-temporal network kernel density estimation (STNKDE) method and time-series clustering to identify road segments with different collision density patterns. Next, we characterize collision-prone road segments based on spatio-temporal information, consequences, vehicle types, and contributing factors to collisions. The proposed method is applied to two-year motor vehicle collision records for New York City. Results: Seven clusters of road segments with different collision density patterns were identified. Road segments frequently determined as collision-prone were primarily found in Lower Manhattan and the center of the Bronx borough. Furthermore, collisions near road segments that exhibit greater collision densities over time result in more fatalities and injuries, many of which are caused by both human and vehicle factors. Conclusions: Collision-prone road segments with various collision density patterns over time have distinct differences in the spatio-temporal domain and the collisions that occur on them. Practical Applications: The proposed method can help policymakers understand how collision-prone road segments change over time, and can serve as a reference for more targeted traffic treatment.