Human comfort analysis for Turkey’s coastal tourism in a changing climate

When the regional and sectoral impacts caused by climate change are evaluated with different levels of vulnerability, the climate change risks that each region and sector may be exposed also vary. It can be expected that the risk posed by climate change on human comfort, especially due to heat stres...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Theoretical and applied climatology 2023-11, Vol.154 (3-4), p.945-958
Main Authors: Bilgin, Başak, Bayindir, Elif, Demiralay, Zekican, Turp, M. Tufan, An, Nazan, Kurnaz, M. Levent
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climate science
Climatic data
Climatology
Coastal tourism
Comfort
Discomfort
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental risk
Global temperature changes
Heat stress
Heat tolerance
humans
Humidity
meteorological data
Natural resources
Regional climate models
Regional climates
Relative humidity
risk
temperature
Tourism
Travel industry
Vulnerability
Waste Water Technology
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
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Summary:When the regional and sectoral impacts caused by climate change are evaluated with different levels of vulnerability, the climate change risks that each region and sector may be exposed also vary. It can be expected that the risk posed by climate change on human comfort, especially due to heat stress, may significantly affect coastal tourism, one of Turkey’s priority sectors. In the study, human comfort changes due to climate change in the 10 most important coastal tourism destinations of Turkey (i.e., Manavgat, Çeşme, Alanya, Kemer, Serik, Bodrum, Marmaris, Kuşadası, Aksu, and Fethiye) in the period of May–October were examined. For this purpose, changes in human comfort in the tourism season were projected in these destinations in the near (2026–2050) and mid-future (2051–2075) by using the Discomfort Index (DI), which is one of the most useful indicators of human comfort. In the study, high-resolution climate data, i.e., temperature and relative humidity produced for Turkey under optimistic (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios using the regional climate model RegCM4.4, was used to calculate DI. Within the scope of both scenarios in examined destinations, it is predicted that DI values will increase in the near and mid-future. It shows that the thresholds of discomfort may be exceeded in these destinations.
ISSN:0177-798X
1434-4483
DOI:10.1007/s00704-023-04613-y