Coastal warming under climate change: Global, faster and heterogeneous

• Published in: The Science of the total environment 2023-08, Vol.886, p.164029-164029, Article 164029
• Main Authors: Varela, R., de Castro, M., Dias, J.M., Gómez-Gesteira, M.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: climate; Climate Change; CMIP6 GCMs; Coastal SST; EBUS; Ecosystem; environment; Global Warming; Seasons; surface water temperature; Temperature; Warming
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164029

The assessment of expected changes in coastal sea surface temperature (SST) on a global scale is becoming increasingly important due to the growing pressure on coastal ecosystems caused by climate change. To achieve this objective, 17 Global Climate Models from CMIP6 were used, with data from historical and hist-1950 experiments spanning 1982–2050. This analysis highlights significant warming of coastal areas worldwide, with higher and more variable rates of warming than observed in previous decades. All basins are projected to experience an increase in coastal SST near 1 °C by mid-century, with some regions exhibiting nearshore SST anomalies exceeding 2 °C for the period 2031–2050 relative to 1995–2014. Regarding the Eastern Upwelling Boundary Systems, only the Canary upwelling system and the southern part of the Humboldt upwelling system manage to show lower-than-average SST warming rates, maintaining, to a certain extent, their ability to buffer global warming. [Display omitted] •Evaluation of the projected changes in the timing and spatial distribution of the coastal SST•Warming expected to be global, faster, and more heterogeneous than in previous decades•All basins show an increase in coastal SST near 1 °C for mid-century relative to 1995–2014.