Prospects for Neotropical Forest Birds and Their Habitats Under Contrasting Emissions Scenarios

ABSTRACT Current and near future climate policy will fundamentally influence the integrity of ecological systems. The Neotropics is a region where biodiversity is notably high and precipitation regimes largely determine the ecology of most organisms. We modeled possible changes in the severity of se...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Global change biology 2024-10, Vol.30 (10), p.e17544-n/a
Main Authors: Brawn, Jeffrey D., Luther, David, Qu, Mingxin, Farinelli, Sarah M., Cooper, W. Justin, Fu, Rong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Amazonia
Animals
Aridity
Avifauna
Biodiversity
Birds
Birds - physiology
Caribbean
Climate
Climate Change
Climate change mitigation
Climate policy
climate refugia
Conservation of Natural Resources
Deforestation
drought
dry environmental conditions
Dry season
Ecosystem
environmental policy
Forest management
Forests
global change
high and low emissions scenarios
lowland forests
Moisture stress
Neotropics
Precipitation
projected precipitation regimes
Protected areas
refuge habitats
Refuges
Refugia
Seasons
South America
species
tropical birds
Tropical Climate
Tropical forests
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Summary:ABSTRACT Current and near future climate policy will fundamentally influence the integrity of ecological systems. The Neotropics is a region where biodiversity is notably high and precipitation regimes largely determine the ecology of most organisms. We modeled possible changes in the severity of seasonal aridity by 2100 throughout the Neotropics and used birds to illustrate the implications of contrasting climate scenarios for the region's biodiversity. Under SSP‐8.5, a pessimistic and hopefully unlikely scenario, longer dry seasons (> 5%), and increased moisture stress are projected for about 75% of extant lowland forests throughout the entire region with impacts on 66% of the region's lowland forest avifauna, which comprises over 3000 species and about 30% of all bird species globally. Longer dry seasons are predicted to be especially significant in the Caribbean, Upper South America, and Amazonia. In contrast, under SSP‐2.6—a scenario with significant climate mitigation—only about 10% of the entire region's forest area and 3% of its avifauna will be exposed to longer dry seasons. The extent of current forest cover that may plausibly function as precipitation‐based climate refugia (i.e.,
ISSN:1354-1013
1365-2486
1365-2486
DOI:10.1111/gcb.17544