Long-term trend of the tropical cyclone translation speed over the western North Pacific with track change

Tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed (TCTS) has been reported to significantly decrease during the past several decades over the western North Pacific (WNP). In this paper, we used an objective clustering method to categorize the WNP TCs into 7 typical tracks. A statistical method was utilized to...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate dynamics 2025, Vol.63 (1), p.45-45, Article 45
Main Authors: Fu, Kai-Jie, Guo, Yi‑Peng, Tan, Zhe‑Min
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Circulation anomalies
Climatology
Clustering
Cyclones
Cyclonic circulation
Density
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Geophysics/Geodesy
Hurricanes
Oceanography
Original Article
Philippine Sea
Philippines
South China Sea
Statistical methods
Steering
Translation
Trends
Tropical cyclones
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Summary:Tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed (TCTS) has been reported to significantly decrease during the past several decades over the western North Pacific (WNP). In this paper, we used an objective clustering method to categorize the WNP TCs into 7 typical tracks. A statistical method was utilized to quantitatively analyze the contribution by the changes in the TCTS and the relative track density of each category to the basin-mean TCTS trend. The decreasing trends of TCTS generated in the vicinity of the Philippines west of around 135°E and then entered the South China Sea (TCs in cluster 3), TCs formed in the east of the Philippine Sea (TCs in clusters 4), long-lifetime TCs (TCs in cluster 5) and recurving TCs formed closer to East Asia (TCs in cluster 6) contribute − 0.36 km h −1 decade −1 (69.94% of the total trend). The long-term trends of the steering flows of these four clusters show cyclonic circulation anomalies over the WNP, which is mainly related to the weakening of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in last decades. On the other hand, the relative track density of two types of recurving TCs with the northmost genesis position and faster translation speed (TCs in clusters 1 and 7) significantly decreases, which accounts for 19.27% of the total slowdown trend. The changes in relative track density and TCTS combine to make a nonlinear contribution of 10.79% to the total trend.
ISSN:0930-7575
1432-0894
DOI:10.1007/s00382-024-07510-w