Scientific Basis for the Greenhouse Effect

The international community may reach agreement to limit carbon emissions as early as 1992 when Brazil will host a negotiating convention on climate change. Because the cost of switching to alternative fuels could be high, with profound implications for long-term economic growth especially in develo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Economic journal (London) 1991-07, Vol.101 (407), p.904-919
Main Author: Cline, William R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide emissions
Climate change
Climate change policy
Clouds
Developing countries
Economic development
Economic growth
Economic impact
Economic policy
Economics
Fuels
Global warming
Greenhouse effect
Implications
International
International environmental cooperation
LDCs
Oceans
Policy Forum
Policy making
Radiative forcing
Studies
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Summary:The international community may reach agreement to limit carbon emissions as early as 1992 when Brazil will host a negotiating convention on climate change. Because the cost of switching to alternative fuels could be high, with profound implications for long-term economic growth especially in developing countries, policy action must be based on the view that the science of the greenhouse effect is compelling. The scientific logic and evidence for the effect are examined. The analysis draws heavily from the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For each decade that passes without action, global mean temperatures are expected to rise by 0.29 degrees C in realized values and by 0.37 degrees C for warming commitment. An ambitious plan of firming up the science and greatly elaborating the meager estimates of economic effects is called for. The science and the policy discussions so far have focused insufficiently on effects in the very long term, on the order of 250 to 300 years.
ISSN:0013-0133
1468-0297
DOI:10.2307/2233863