Estimating the strength of expert judgement: The case of US mortality forecasts

The use of expert judgement is an important part of demographic forecasting. However, because judgement enters into the forecasting process in an informal way, it has been very difficult to assess its role relative to the analysis of past data. The use of targets in demographic forecasts permits us...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of forecasting 1992-02, Vol.11 (2), p.157-167
Main Author: Alho, Juha M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Bayesian analysis
Combination of forecasts
Data analysis
Demographics
Demography Mixed estimation
Economic forecasting
Economic models
Estimating techniques
Experts
Mortality
Studies
Time series
U.S.A
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Summary:The use of expert judgement is an important part of demographic forecasting. However, because judgement enters into the forecasting process in an informal way, it has been very difficult to assess its role relative to the analysis of past data. The use of targets in demographic forecasts permits us to embed the subjective forecasting process into a simple time‐series regression model, in which expert judgement is incorporated via mixed estimation. The strength of expert judgement is denned, and estimated using the official forecasts of cause‐specific mortality in the United States. We show that the weight given to judgement varies in an improbable manner by age. Overall, the weight given to judgement appears too high. An alternative approach to combining expert judgement and past data is suggested.
ISSN:0277-6693
1099-131X
DOI:10.1002/for.3980110206