Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors That Explain the Decline and Six That Do Not

Crime dropped sharply and unexpectedly in the United States in the 1990s. I conclude that four factors collectively explain the entire drop in crime: increases in the number of police, increases in the size of the prison population, the waning of the crack epidemic, and the legalization of abortion...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of economic perspectives 2004-01, Vol.18 (1), p.163-190
Main Author: Levitt, Steven D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Abortion
Burglary
Cities
Crime
Crime patterns
Crime reduction
Criminal investigations
Criminal justice
Criminal punishment
Criminal statistics
Criminology
Economics
Factor analysis
FBI
Firearm laws & regulations
Government policy
Guns
Homicide
Homicide rates
Law
Police
Policing
Population
Property crime
Property crimes
Social conditions & trends
Studies
Trends
U.S.A
Uniform Crime Reports
Violent crime
Violent crimes
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Summary:Crime dropped sharply and unexpectedly in the United States in the 1990s. I conclude that four factors collectively explain the entire drop in crime: increases in the number of police, increases in the size of the prison population, the waning of the crack epidemic, and the legalization of abortion in the 1970s. Other common explanations for declining crime appear far less important. The factors identified are much less successful in explaining fluctuations in crime in the preceding two decades. The real puzzle is not why crime fell in the 1990s, but rather, why crime did not begin falling earlier.
ISSN:0895-3309
1944-7965
DOI:10.1257/089533004773563485