The political cost of taxation: New evidence from German popularity ratings

Previous studies indicate that higher tax burdens reduce incumbents' popularity and re-election odds. The present paper offers a new test of this relation for German data. Our findings indicate that taxation indeed negatively affects German federal government approval ratings, in line with prev...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Electoral studies 2008-12, Vol.27 (4), p.633-648
Main Authors: Geys, Benny, Vermeir, Jan
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Elections
Federal Republic of Germany
Germany
Government approval
Government policy
Incumbency
Popularity
Popularity function
Public Opinion
Public opinion polls
Taxation
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Summary:Previous studies indicate that higher tax burdens reduce incumbents' popularity and re-election odds. The present paper offers a new test of this relation for German data. Our findings indicate that taxation indeed negatively affects German federal government approval ratings, in line with previous international research. Nonetheless, the government's popularity losses do not necessarily translate into comparable gains in the opposition's popularity. In fact, the opposition may even lose support when there is ‘divided government’ (i.e. when it has some power over policies). Finally, we find some (albeit weak) evidence that the costs of taxation are limited to the tax burden imposed by the federal government and do not extend to taxes levied at lower levels of government.
ISSN:0261-3794
1873-6890
DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2008.02.008