THE QUANDARY OF DANGEROUSNESS: Towards the Resolution of a Persisting Dilemma

Starting with the assumption that the present system of criminal justice sanctions is unacceptably ineffective for the prevention of violent offenses, the concept of dangerousness -- not as yet admitted to the lexicon of criminal justice -- is considered. There are two major objections to its catego...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:British journal of criminology 1982-07, Vol.22 (3), p.255-267
Main Author: Conrad, John P.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Crime control
Criminal arrests
Criminal justice
Criminal law
Criminal sentencing
Criminals
Danger
Prisons
Recidivism
Statutory law
Violent crimes
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Summary:Starting with the assumption that the present system of criminal justice sanctions is unacceptably ineffective for the prevention of violent offenses, the concept of dangerousness -- not as yet admitted to the lexicon of criminal justice -- is considered. There are two major objections to its categorical use: (1) the impossibility of predicting future behavior of convicted offenders better than mere chance; & (2) the special difficulties of proof that are imposed in the application of habitual criminal statutes. Research carried out in Columbus, Ohio, yielded the following results: (A) the juvenile justice system is unpredictable in its administration of sanctions to serious juvenile offenders, & the more severe sanctions increase the velocity of the offenders' return to criminal activity; (B) as for adult offenders, even an unfeasibly stringent system of penalties succeeds in reducing by incapacitation the incidence of violent crime by no more than 25%; & (C) in a sample of 25 years of arrest reports in the Columbus archives, the probability of recidivism from offense to offense exceeded 80%, & the probability of a second or third violent offense approached 50%. Three policy changes are advanced: (a) the processes of plea-bargaining should be reformed to limit the degree of maneuver in the modification of charges; (b) sanctions must become predictable, with mandatory sentences of incarceration for all offenders who inflict serious physial harm on victims; & (c) all violent offenders, whether on probation or parole, should be subjected to a system of police supervision & surveillance; for this last recommendation a plan for implementation is sketched. 15 References. Modified AA.
ISSN:0007-0955
1464-3529
DOI:10.1093/oxfordjournals.bjc.a047311