Counterfactual models of neighborhood effects: The effect of neighborhood poverty on dropping out and teenage pregnancy

This article investigates the causal effects of neighborhood on high school dropping out and teenage pregnancy within a counterfactual framework. It shows that when two groups of children, identical at age 10 on observed factors, experience different neighborhoods during adolescence, those in high-p...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American journal of sociology 2003-11, Vol.109 (3), p.676-719
Main Author: HARDING, David J
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adolescent girls
Adolescent Pregnancy
Causality
Counterfactual thinking
Dropouts
Dropping out
High schools
Methodological Problems
Neighborhoods
Neighbourhoods
Poverty
Pregnancy
Rural and urban sociology
Socioeconomic Factors
Sociology
Statistical Bias
Students
Urban Poverty
Urban sociology
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Summary:This article investigates the causal effects of neighborhood on high school dropping out and teenage pregnancy within a counterfactual framework. It shows that when two groups of children, identical at age 10 on observed factors, experience different neighborhoods during adolescence, those in high-poverty neighborhoods are more likely to drop out of high school and have a teenage pregnancy than those in low-poverty neighborhoods. Causal inferences from such associations have been plagued by the possibility of selection bias. Using a new method for sensitivity analysis, these effects are shown to be robust to selection bias. Unobserved factors would have to be unreasonably strong to account for the associations between neighborhood and the outcomes. 10 Tables, 2 Figures, 84 References. (Original abstract - amended)
ISSN:0002-9602
1537-5390
DOI:10.1086/379217