ECONOMIC DEPRIVATION AND CHANGES IN HOMICIDE ARREST RATES FOR WHITE AND BLACK YOUTHS, 1967-1998: A NATIONAL TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

Using time‐series techniques with national data for 1967–98, we model the effects on changes in age‐race‐specific arrest rates of changes in indicators of economic deprivation. A measure of child poverty is positively related to juvenile arrest rates for both races, whereas changing unemployment (la...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Criminology (Beverly Hills) 2001-08, Vol.39 (3), p.591-614
Main Authors: MESSNER, STEVEN F., RAFFALOVICH, LAWRENCE E., McMILLAN, RICHARD
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Arrest
Arrests
Black White Differences
Blacks
Crime Rates
Criminology
Deprivation
Homicide
Income inequality
Inequality
Juvenile Offenders
Poverty
Race
Time Series Analysis
U.S.A
Violence
Whites
Youth
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Summary:Using time‐series techniques with national data for 1967–98, we model the effects on changes in age‐race‐specific arrest rates of changes in indicators of economic deprivation. A measure of child poverty is positively related to juvenile arrest rates for both races, whereas changing unemployment (lagged) yields a surprising negative effect on youth offending. Measures of intraracial income inequality are also associated with changes in juvenile arrest rates, but the effects differ by race. Between‐race inequality is unrelated to changes in arrest rates for both races. Our general conclusion is that fluctuations in juvenile homicide offending over recent decades can be understood, at least in part, with reference to the macro‐economic environment confronting young people and their families.
ISSN:0011-1384
1745-9125
DOI:10.1111/j.1745-9125.2001.tb00934.x