The 1996 Open-Seat Congressional Elections

Objective. Persistent Democratic dominance in open-seat races came to an abrupt end in 1994 as Republicans gained eighteen seats in open House contests. A large part of this Republican surge was regional: southern voters rejected experienced Democratic House candidates, often in favor of less experi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Social science quarterly 1998-06, Vol.79 (2), p.445-455
Main Authors: Gaddie, Ronald Keith, Mott, Jonathan D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
1996
Candidates
CONGRESS (ALL NATIONS)
Congressional elections
ELECTION
Electoral districts
Government spending
Incumbents
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR
Political campaigns
Political candidates
Political elections
Political parties
Political partisanship
Regression analysis
REPUBLICAN PARTY (ALL NATIONS)
Research Notes
Retirement
USA
VOTING
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Summary:Objective. Persistent Democratic dominance in open-seat races came to an abrupt end in 1994 as Republicans gained eighteen seats in open House contests. A large part of this Republican surge was regional: southern voters rejected experienced Democratic House candidates, often in favor of less experienced Republicans. In 1996, the GOP sustained its majority and actually registered a net gain of six seats in nonincumbent contests. Data. We further explore the changes in open-seat contests by examining the dynamics of open-seat contests in 1996, using regression analysis of district-level data from that year's forty-nine open-seat contests. Results. Our analysis indicates that the changes which began with the 1994 elections have not been reversed or abated; the GOP continues to make political gains in the South. In open-seat races in 1996, elective experience was not a significant predictor of electoral success. Conclusions. The South's continued shift to the GOP and the volatility of political experience as an indicator of success since 1994 indicate a change in voter preferences and decision making that diminished the importance of political experience in winning a seat in Congress in 1996.
ISSN:0038-4941
1540-6237