A General Characterization of Consistency Algorithms in Multidimensional Demographic Projection Models

Demographic projection models describe the development over time of the population in terms of events. A consistency problem arises if projected numbers of events are required to satisfy certain constraints; the consistency problem can be seen as a generalization of the well-known two-sex problem in...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Population studies 1992-03, Vol.46 (1), p.159-169
Main Author: Van Imhoff, Evert
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age groups
Algorithms
Arithmetic mean
Children
Demographics
Demography
Forecasting
Harmonic mean
Mathematical vectors
Mathematics
Matrices
Objective functions
Parametric models
Population forecasts
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Summary:Demographic projection models describe the development over time of the population in terms of events. A consistency problem arises if projected numbers of events are required to satisfy certain constraints; the consistency problem can be seen as a generalization of the well-known two-sex problem in nuptiality models. This paper presents a very general characterization of consistency problems, using matrix notation, as well as a slightly less general algorithm to solve them. The preferred specification of the objective function to be minimized by the algorithm leads to a solution that can be interpreted as a generalization of the harmonic-mean approach.
ISSN:0032-4728
1477-4747
DOI:10.1080/0032472031000146066