The Economic Risk of Childhood in America: Estimating the Probability of Poverty across the Formative Years

• Published in: Journal of marriage and family 1999-11, Vol.61 (4), p.1058-1067
• Main Authors: Rank, Mark R., Hirschl, Thomas A.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: African American Children; African Americans; Age; Blacks; Childhood; Children; Children & youth; Disadvantaged Youth; Early Experience; Economic Factors; Economic forecasts; Education; Educational Attainment; Educational Background; Family; Family Influence; Family Structure; Health Needs; Households; Life tables; Longitudinal Studies; Nuclear Family; Of General Interest; One Parent Family; Parental education; Poverty; Poverty line; Race; Risk; Risk assessment; Social problems and social policy. Social work; Socioeconomic factors; Socioeconomic status; Sociology; U.S.A; United States of America; Young Children
• ISSN: 0022-2445; 1741-3737
• DOI: 10.2307/354024

This article estimates the proportion of children in the United States who will experience poverty at some point during their childhood. These proportions are derived through a set of life tables built from 25 waves of longitudinal data. They represent a fundamentally different approach to studying poverty than either a cross-sectional or poverty spell methodology. Our data indicate that between the ages of 1 year and 17 years, 34% of American children will spend at least 1 year below the poverty line, 40% will experience poverty at the 125% level, and 18% will face extreme poverty (below 50% of the poverty line). A series of bivariate and multivariate life tables reveal that race, family structure, and parental education all have a sizeable impact on the likelihood of experiencing poverty. During the 17 years of childhood, 69% of Black children, 81% of children in nonmarried households, and 63% of children whose head of household had fewer than 12 years of education will be touched by poverty.