Impact of Varying the Component Assumptions on Projected Total Population and Age Structure in Canada

Examines the relative impact of the range of component assumptions -- ie, fertility, mortality, & immigration -- on the projected total population & age structure, using Canadian population projections, 1993-2041. The effect of the high or low assumptions of each component on the variability...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Canadian studies in population 1997-12, Vol.24 (1), p.67-86
Main Authors: George, M. V., Loh, Shirley, Verma, Ravi B. P.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Canada
Census
Error of Measurement
Methodology (Data Analysis)
Population Characteristics
Population Distribution
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Summary:Examines the relative impact of the range of component assumptions -- ie, fertility, mortality, & immigration -- on the projected total population & age structure, using Canadian population projections, 1993-2041. The effect of the high or low assumptions of each component on the variability in projected population size & age structure is measured as the deviation from the medium scenario, while controlling for the effect of the other two components. Two factors are found to have significant effect on the variation of the projected total population: the range of the component assumption & the pace at which the assumption reaches its horizon value. Each component has its own unique effect on each age group: eg, immigration is the only component to have a significant effect across the age groups 0-14, 15-64, & 65+. 7 Figures, 13 References. Adapted from the source document.
ISSN:0380-1489
1927-629X
DOI:10.25336/P6TP4V